2009 Oddsmaking Thread!

[michaelpaciocco]

Not a bad bet either, I'll grant you - and "Fear Itself" is supposed to be big...but....I'm still betting on Storm being one of the early victims - there also the matter that she's no one's pet character.

The only thing I'd argue about is the "Supporting cast" arguement - decompression has all but killed that in the Modern Age - which series published by the big Two even has a decent supporting cast these days that gets regular play? Batman...maybe? Spider-Man - sorta (only if you count the BND-additions)?

[Mario Di Giacomo]

True, but at least there are other non-superhumans in most of those books. Is there anyone in the CA title who isn't a former Avenger (or a villain)? Last I checked, it was just Natasha & Sam.

[michaelpaciocco]

Not that I can think of - unless you count Sharon Carter.

On the other hand, you could apply that to just about any other Big Two ongoing series at this point.

[Mario Di Giacomo]

Feb 12, 2011 9:52:51 GMT -8 michaelpaciocco said:

Not that I can think of - unless you count Sharon Carter.

On the other hand, you could apply that to just about any other Big Two ongoing series at this point.

To various degrees, yes. But still... something about BuckyCap makes me think that he's only designed for the short term.

[michaelpaciocco]

I agree whole heartedly that Bucky will be gone eventually. What I disagree with you on isn't that - it's your arguement that the presecnce/promienence of a supporting cast has any relation to that issue that I don't agree with.

[Mario Di Giacomo]

That's fair.

[jensaltmann]

So, what are the odds about the DC reboot? Which comic will be the first to be late? Which one will be the first to be cancelled?

For the former, there are many opportunities. They have comics by Jim Lee, David Fincher and Rob Liefeld. All of whom are, shall we say, not exactly known to be quick workers.

I think that Batwing will be the first to go. The main character is Black, he's not American or even in America, and his costume looks like a Cosmic Boy hand-me-down. I give that one five issues.

[michaelpaciocco]

First Late book? I'm going to go with Hawk and Dove - because Liefeld.

First cancelled? Hmm....I'll go with Blackhawks.

[K-Box]

Put me down for Batwing as the first cancelled too, simply because everything about it SCREAMS that it's the sort of book DC publishes KNOWING that it's going to get cancelled, but they publish it anyway simply to give themselves PC cred, so that they can say they TRIED to support a minority character.

[michaelpaciocco]

My theories on the Nolan/Snyder Supes movie.

First, my case is based on the following bits of circumstantial evidence:

1) Nolan writing collaborator David S. Goyer is a contemporary and friend of Geoff Johns (They shared co-writing credits on early JSA, and Goyer wrote a glowing foreward to the Johns written "Superman: Secret Origins" TPB, which depicted Lois as all but seeing through Clark Kent's facade on Day One).
2) From some of the early set photos of the film, there is a good chance we will see some version of "The US military vs. Superman early in his career", which is consistent with "Secret Origins" and the DCnU Action.
3) While it has been noted that Nolan's films are weirdly asexual vibe to them, the same certainly cannot be said of director Zach Snyder.
4) If we are to use Nolan's Batfilms as a point of reference, we note two important features to his work. First, as an auteur, he will want to stamp his own vision on the franchise, to step away from what has traditionally been done, which means that we may see some marked departures from the Donner films. Secondly, a grounding in both plausibility and psychological realism, if not practical realism. This leads to my most important point,

5) Nolan seems to eschew the traditional secret identity dynamics of comics. Consider that in his Batmovie franchise, we not only have Alfred, but also Rachel Dawes, Lucius Fox, and Coleman Reese (the forensics accounting guy) all know his ID, and it's heavily implied by the teaser trailer to "Dark Knight Rises", James Gordon has put it all together. There aren't a lot of objectively stupid people that populate the world of Nolan's films, and that's something that would tend to undercut the traditional Clark Kent disguise

All of the above leads me to the conclusion that the chances of seeing the "classic" Clark/Lois/Superman Triangle are about 30%. I have two theories as to what we'll see; the Traditional and the Radical Departure.

Traditional (I'm posting the odds at 60%) - By the end of the movie, Lois has figured it out, perhaps on the Sam Raimi "Mary Jane pretty much knows Pete is Spider-Man but won't admit it to herself" level, or on a more overt level. Really this is going to depend on which influence dominates - if it's Snyder, it'll be about as subtle as a punch in the face, if it's Nolan, it could be more underplayed.

Radical Theory (my personal favorite, but it's a dark horse 10%) - For the majority of the movie, there will be no Clark Kent - oh, he'll have been raised by Ma and Pa, but once he gets the suit on, he's full-time-hero mode. But between Zod and Faora kicking him around the globe, and the US military trying to nuke him out of the sky, he's not going to have much time to do anything else but survive. And of course, this is where we'll meet Lois Lane - ball busting military-brat turned activist reporter following the army (possibly commanded by her Dad? yeah sure, why not?). And of course, once Zod starts tearing through said Army, it's Superman who saves her, and she helps him not only take care of Zod and Faora, but also help get in good with the public so the Army stops shooting him. But it's Lois who suggests a covert identity. And the lost shot of the movie is Lois coaching nebbish Clark into his new role as a new reporter at the Daily Planet.


Or maybe I'm just being way too optimistic. I've been told I do that.

[Anders]

Whether it's correct or not, it sounds like fun.

[K-Box]

Here's a couple of new ones for the thread:

1. How long before Marvel pulls its own line-wide reboot?

2. How long before the Spider-Man editorial crew brings back Gwen Stacy?

[Anders]

I think Marvel did some of the reboot already with the Ultimate Universe. With that they have a more entry-reader friendly way into the comics.

[K-Box]

I'm not talking about their Ultimate line (which has been plunging to new sales lows for years). I'm talking about the original 616 line.

[Anders]

My point was that having the Ultimate line makes a full reboot less interesting.