2009 Oddsmaking Thread!

[michaelpaciocco]

Because 2008 is gonna be over soon, and we might as well start on this one now that there's been at least two months of 2009 solicits in the air.

DC First:

The Black Lantern Pool:
Pa Kent - 75%. Geoff Johns book and all that...
Bart Allen - 10%. Only way this happens is if he isn't magically alive at the end of "Legion of 3 Worlds"
Conner Kent - 5%. Depends on how the lawsuits go, I suppose
Jack T. Chance - 50%. If for no other reason than Kyle Wangst
Ted Kord - 30% chance. Would be kind of a dick move after what he did in Booster Gold to create some kind of closure.
Rocket Red - 50%. On the other hand, any chance to slap down the Giffen League.
Johnny Quick - 20%. Johns likes Liberty Belle and Jesse, so wouldn't be impossible.
Hawkwoman - 50%. I figure there will be one dead Hawk, but given how Hawk continuity works, fuck knows how that'll work.
Thomas and Martha Wayne - 3%. Johns isn't a Batman guy, nevermind we have no idea who Batman might be at that point.
Jade - 90%. Sorta a Green Lantern and it gives a tie-in to JSA. Plus more Kyle Wangst.
Hal Jordan's Dad - 99%. Johns ain't subtle.

Who will be Batman?
Bruce Wayne - 100%. I mean, Eventually, but if we have to discount him, fine, let's go down this list
Dick Grayson - 50%. Been here, but on the other hand, seriously, I have no idea where they are going here...
Tim Drake - 25% - maybe here, but doubtful.
Damian - 5%. Outside of Grant, has anyone even used this bastard?
Jason Todd - 10% Dear God let us hope not, but can't discount it either.
Other - 10%. Batwoman? Commisioner Gordon? Alfred? Fuck, throw Jean-Paul Valley into the circus if you want to.

"New Krypton" will end with:
All the Kryptonians DEAD - 90%.
The Kryptonians leaving Earth - 5%
Other - 5%.

Cancellation List:
Booster Gold - 75%.
Supergirl - 15%. Pretty safe because of cross promoting with Johns' "Action".
All "Wildstorm Superhero" proper books will be cancelled by Dec 2009 - 80% chance and rising.

OK, ugh, Marvel Time...

Let's go with SI: Fallout
Skrulls dead: 90%
Skrulls Alive and in hiding: 5%. Lord knows Bendis LUVS draging his stories on FUCKING ENDLESSLY.
Skrulls Alive and operating on Earth openly: 1% That would involve contributing something new to the Marvel Universe that was a thinly-veiled Mary-Sue character, and that is something Bendis simply DOES NOT DO*

"No More Mutants" being reversed or at least negated so there can be new mutants again by the end of 2009: 75%.
NuSpidey sales going beneath 60K: 50%. Let us hope this happens sooner or later.
"BND" being reversed: 1% Expect them to cling to this one for dear life. As I've said before, nothing less than a clean sweep of editorial will fix this one.

Cancellations (Marvel):
X-Factor - 30%. yeah, I kinda expect this.
Moon Knight - 50%. God, can I hope?
Thunderbolts - 50%. See Dark Avengers Below
Wolverine: First Class - 50%. Without Van Lente, I don't give it good chances.
Ms. Marvel - 20%. It's a pet character, so I think this book is pretty safe, logic be damned.
Black Panther - 0%. Sorry. But I think that even if Marvel had to pay people to read this, they'd do it.

She-Hulk, after the cancellation of her book, will end up in:
Hulk - 50%. Likely, but let's hope not, because good characters deserve better than Jeph Loeb.
FF - 10%. Possible but unlikely
Avengers - 20%. Definite possiblity with Slott running a book.
Forgotten altogether and pushed to the wayside - 5%. Again, hope not.

Casey's Last Defenders concept will be used or acknowledged by Marvel: 1%. At best.

Steve Rogers' return will occur in 2009: 50%. I used to consider this higher, but considering that the end of "The Death of Cap" storyarc was a whimper, I'm thinking they are going to try and stretch this out longer.

Method of Steve's return:
-Cosmic Cube, in Avengers/Invaders: 10%. Bit of a dark horse, but given that the Cube just got name checked, it has to be at least acknowledged.
-Cosmic Cube, in Brubaker's Cap: 40%. The Cube was part of the first year of Bru's stories, and if you show a gun in Act 1....

OK, Dark Avengers Speculation Time

They are Skrulls: 10%. Only way this works is if they survive the Invasion
They are the Black Ops Avengers: 5%. If this is right, then this is the lamest attempt at covertness ever.
They are Osborn's ultra Elite personal Avengers/retasked T-Bolts - 85%.

If they are not Skrulls, then....

Iron Patriot:
-Baron Zemo: 1%. I don't think he'd try the same trick twice.
-Ezekiel Stane: 5%. Hey, if Stark didn't build this armor, who do you think did? I figure at the very least he built it, if he isn't the pilot.
-James Rhodey: 1% Been there, done that, is War Machine.
-Norman Osborn: 90%. This is probably the best option.
-Other: 3%. Options include John Walker/USAgent, Flagg, and others.

"Black Spidey"
-Venom (Mac Gargan) - 75%
-Venom (Eddie Brock) - 10%. I doubt Bendis wants to rock the boat with Slott.
-Flash Thompson in a retasked Scarlett Spider Spider-Armor - 5%. This is my pet theory.
-Other: 10%. Carnage maybe?

"Hawkeye"
-Bullseye - 90%
-Trickshot - 1%. Why the fuck not? He's not dead last I checked.
-Taskmaster - 5%. I'm sure Norman might want more from the 3rd deadliest assassin then for him to be a drill sargeant.
-Other: 4%.

"Wolverine"
-Daken (Wolverine's long lost son or whatever):30%. Apparently Bendis has expressed intrest in him.
-Swordsman: 40%. The smarter bet.
-Sabretooth: 20%. Yes, his head was cut off. On the other hand, this happened in a Loeb story, and I refuse to discount this possiblity.
-Other: 10%.

"Ms. Marvel"
-Moonstone: 80% Again, it's the smart money
-Ultragirl: 5%. She was the last one with that costume, so that has to be factored in.
-Carol Danvers: 5%. It could happen. Lord knows if Ms. Marvel follows her "I believe in the law and the system" approach, this is where she should be.
-Emma Frost: 5%. Personal Pet theory, but if she ever found out about Scott and X-Force, what's to say she wouldn't do some covert work of her own?
-Other: 5% Insert your own pet theory here.

*I can't believe I'm about to say this, but like it or not Millar has contributed on a conceptual level to the Marvel Universe: while we can debate the merits and value of these contributions, things like the Zombieverse and the Initiative have proven to be useful for Marvel.

OK, if this theory is true, and the T-Bolts are going to be the Dark Avengers, then who will be the Thunderbolts (assuming the title isn't cancelled outright):
-Songbird - 90%. Really, no team without her
-Radioactive Man - 60%
-Penance/Speedball/Robbie Baldwin - 50%
-Zemo - 50%. It would explain that Zemo art from a while back.
-Atlas - 30%. I'm biased because he's an old favorite of mine.
-Fixer/Techno - 5%. Yeah....not too likely.
-Abe Jenkins/Beetle/M.A.C.H. 5/6/? - 25%. It would be SOOOO worth it just for the Speed Racer Jokes.
-Speed Demon - 5%. I still don't remember where he ended up.
-Joystick - 5%. Same here.
-Blizzard - 5%. Could work. Probably wouldn't.
-Plant Man - 1%
-Citizen V - 10%. Would make for a few good jokes at least.
-Jolt - 1% Yeah, if they could explain what could happen to her, and if anyone but Kurt Busiek cared.
-Charcoal the Burning man - 1%. See Jolt
-Dallas Riordian - 3%. At least she got namechecked in the latest issue.
-American Eagle - 5%. I'm just putting him in here because hey, he beat the shit out of Bullseye, and that should count for something in this world.
-Swordsman -40%. Only if he doesn't get the Dark Avengers gig.
-Smuggler/Conrad Josten -5%. Yeah, I know, not likely.

Ok, and there you go.

Your turn

[jessebaker]

I think X-Factor and Thunderbolts are safe. X-Factor got enough of a sales boost from Messiah Complex to keep it safe for the time being and with the dire status of X-Men spin-offs right now, X-Factor serves a niche as far as giving Marvel an X-Book that's relatively stand alone-ish compared to the rest of the line's incestfest.

Thunderbolts, from what I've heard is pretty safe. Diggle's the new writer and I would think Bendis is simply going to steal the current status quo for his own neferious purposes via Dark Avengers and leave Diggle to reconstruct a new T-Bolts team, with Speedball back as Speedball, Songbird as leader, and a new influx of B/C-List characters replacing the departing cast members Bendis has yanked for use in Dark Avengers. The book has a devoted following/fandom, so I could see Diggle turning the team into a super-powered version of "The Losers" ala the Busiek/Fabian N. run from T-Bolts #13-50.

With Blue Beetle being cancelled and Ted (apparently) back amongst the living after the second Booster Gold arc, I want to see Jaime Reyes lose his BB powers and become the Blue Lantern. Not only because it means Ted can go back to being Blue Beetle, but also because it means Jaime gets a new book launched out of "The Blackest Night" and a reason for DC to let Ganthet and the Green Lanterns make regular appearances alongside Jaime to ensure he doesn't get cancelled a second time via the sales boost of being best buds with the GLs.

[michaelpaciocco]

Nov 24, 2008 15:37:01 GMT -8 jessebaker said:

With Blue Beetle being cancelled and Ted (apparently) back amongst the living after the second Booster Gold arc, I want to see Jaime Reyes lose his BB powers and become the Blue Lantern. Not only because it means Ted can go back to being Blue Beetle, but also because it means Jaime gets a new book launched out of "The Blackest Night" and a reason for DC to let Ganthet and the Green Lanterns make regular appearances alongside Jaime to ensure he doesn't get cancelled a second time via the sales boost of being best buds with the GLs.

Clearly you either didn't read or are deliberately misreading the second Booster Gold Arc, because, sorry Jesse, Ted's still dead.

[Mario Di Giacomo]

Nov 24, 2008 15:40:58 GMT -8 michaelpaciocco said:

Clearly you either didn't read or are deliberately misreading the second Booster Gold Arc, because, sorry Jesse, Ted's still dead.

There is one bit in Booster Gold 1,000,000 that suggests otherwise:



That being said, I'd rather see Jaime as The Scarab. Ted doesn't need Khaji Da, after all.

[michaelpaciocco]

huh. Didn't see that one. Still, doubt he's going to be back for a while. Besides, if DC can have 3 Green Arrows, 17 Flashes and 21 Billion GLs, there's room for more Blue Beetles.

[jessebaker]

But let's face it, with DC introducing Rainbow Lanterns, you know ONE of the new flavors of Lanterns is going to get his/her own new series. At which point, why not kill two birds with one stone and make Jaime the new Blue Lantern?

Given that Jaime is the current poster boy for happy go lucky teenage super-heroes, why not make him the Lantern of Hope? He can carry his own title characterwise, already has semi-ties with the Green Lanterns, AND could give DC a fun cosmic based book to counterbalance the constant "war, death, enslavement" spiel that DC has been on with their space-themed books lately. ESPECIALLY since they are gearing up for yet another "Massive Space Empire" storyline with the upcoming REBELS '09 relaunch.

[Mario Di Giacomo]

Primarily, because I like the relationship he has with the Scarab, one that Ted neither had nor needs. Giving him a whole different power set just because irks me.

In any case, the Blue Lantern appears to be fairly useless in solo operation... if I'm reading the signs right, he primarily exists to buff other heroes.

[michaelpaciocco]

OK, part the second, and I want to get to this before the next previews/solits hits:

Who will get a restarted title/mini series this year?

Hawkman - 40%. Starlin needs a project, it seems, and he might do it.
Adam Strange - 20%
Legion of Superheroes - 100%. Now as to whom will write it?
Geoff Johns - 75%. Let's face it, it's more likely than not, and if he does, 99% certain it'll be the Legion he's been using in Action and "Legion of Three Worlds"
Other - 25%. Place your bets here
Spider-Woman - 50%. If it does happen, my money is on Brian Reed
The New Gods - 40%. Depends on how they are left after Final Crisis
Birds of Prey - 30%. Lord knows they deserve another shot after the royal bastard treatment they've gotten over the last couple years creatively.
Animal Man - 10%. I could imagine Didio letting this happen for all the supposed headaches Grant's giving him
Doom Patrol - 20%. See Animal Man.
She Hulk - 60%. If so, expect it to be as "Savage She-Hulk", and really, given the numbers, there was no logistical reason to cancel it in the first place.
Darkhawk - 10%. If he succeeds in being "the big players" In "War of the Kings" that they are hyping him as, it could happen. Come on, Nova and Guardians of the Galaxy were thought of as unlikely too!
New Warriors - 20%. If so, I'd expect a version much more friendly to fans of the old group.
Defenders - 40%. If so, almost certainly a "classic" version as opposed to Casey's "Last Defenders"
Dr. Strange - 5%. Don't see it, sorry.
Aaron Stack - 1%
Nextwave - 0.0001%
Young Avengers - 75%. And I'm betting against Heinsberg helming it.
"Captain Marvel" - 40%. Brian Reed, and it'll be Noh-Varr.

OK, your turn.

[jessebaker]

It's been confirmed that Legion won't be outright rebooted, as far as them using the team to launch an all-new Adventure Comics anthology series. Also, it's been stated for AGES that Bendis's Spider-Woman is still on for after Secret Invasion.

As for Guardians of the Galaxy, does it even have ties to the OG GOTG book? Or is it just a placeholder name that stuck, since Giffen and DnA couldn't think of an original name for the series?

[michaelpaciocco]

A version of Major Vance Astro/Major Victory has appeared in the series, and there has been some mention as to the GotG timeline (if that's the case, we are dealing with Vance from somewhere between issue #6-20 of the Valentino series, as he's still in the suit but he's got Cap's Shield with him). There's also a Starhawk, but with a radically different appearance (plus occasional gender changes). This has to do with the shifting timelines, and possible Badoon involvement. So, don't know if that's an answer, but it's what is there.

[jessebaker]

Speaking of which, I'm utterly shocked at the format that Marvel has chosen to FINALLY reprint the original Guardians stuff in, IE their "Premire Hardcover" line.

They have a HC coming out with the very first batch of Guardians stories from the various early 1970s Marvel anthology books. I'm shocked that they are putting it out in THAT format, when they could have, instead, put out a single Essential volume of all of the pre-1990 GOTG appearances, since it's the 90s series that people want to read and not the early stuff.

[paulpogue]

2009 will see Marvel heroes acting like heroes again: 90 percent. It looks like the whole point of this Dark Reign thing is to jumpstart the concept of "heroism" once more and have the Avengers acting like Earth's Mightiest Heroes and not a warring group of revolutionaries versus government-sponsored sociopaths. Depending on how Dark Reign is handled, it could actually be a hell of a good story.

Speedball will return: 90 percent. Jesse has pointed out elsewhere that the current setup has so completely deconstructed the ridiculous "Penance" thing that it's inevitable that the current storyline will end with him returning to his old self, with a bit of a grimmer outlook but not so whiny, leading to ...

Moonstone gets punched through a cliff and crippled: 50 percent. Admit it, it would be cool, but there's a good chance she's a Dark Avenger.

Songbird-led Thunderbolts at the forefront of the anti-Norman revolution: 90 percent. Whether they'll have their own book is debateable, but that moment in the latest issue really nails it: when Songbird remembers how good it felt to be a real hero, even when they were faking it, that brief time when everyone loved them, the Avengers were gone and they were doing the Right Thing. It was all a scam, but let's face it, their current run of "heroism" is actually far darker than anything Zemo ever did. And this time ... this time they could get it right ...

Norman Osborn dies at the end of all this: 50 percent. I find it rather likely, but I can also see them wanting to keep him around. But with all this buildup, and his high prominence as a Spider-villain, it really needs a hell of a payoff in the end.

Captain America returns in 2009: I think they're going to hold off on that a bit, but I'll still put it at 30 percent.

Captain America returns in 2010: 69 percent

Cap returns later than that: 1 percent. Comic book historians, break it down for me -- what's the longest that a major, lead character of a book has remained "dead"? Hal Jordan might actually be the winner there, but let's face it -- even when he wasn't GL, how long was he out of action? The gap between Final Night and Day of Judgment was something like two years, and that's the longest major-hero-out-of-action gap I can think of in modern times. Superman was dead for around 18 months. Spider-Man, Iron Man, Batman, Iron Man and all the rest of the marquee heroes have never actually been "dead" for any significant length of time I can recall. ("Significant" meaning six months or more. Tony's faked it once or twice, but I don't think it even stuck for a month from the reader's point of view.

We will for these purposes consider Captain Mar-Vell to be an extraordinarily unique case, who -- among other things -- actually had his book cancelled after his death, and died on-panel in a WHOLE lot more definitive way than just about any superhero before or since.

The Cosmic Cube is just being referenced a little too often. The only reason I can think of that it might NOT be the way Cap comes back is that this is the route they're already taking in Avengers/Invaders -- in which the entire world's desire to see Cap alive again brings him back. But then again, Marvel has never been subtle.

[Mario Di Giacomo]

Dec 6, 2008 17:08:33 GMT -8 paulpogue said:

Comic book historians, break it down for me -- what's the longest that a major, lead character of a book has remained "dead"?

22 years, not including time-travel cameos.

Fella named Barry Allen.

[paulpogue]

A few others:

Karla Sofen is secretly taking orders over the phone from:

Norman Osborn: 10 percent. Not bloodly likely at all. Also, note that Osborn wanted Songbird taken out with lethal force but they're giving up an easy chance to shoot Robbie in the head.

Helmut Zemo: 70 percent. Nobody ever stays dead. And there's no way, NO WAY, Baron Helmut Zemo pulls off the greatest scam in modern history and lets the Green Fuckin' Goblin take the credit. And Zemo is one of the very, very few people Karla would trust that way. Ironically enough.

Somebody else: 20 percent. Maybe it's a big red herring, but I'll be amazed if it's anyone but Zemo. This is his kind of string-pulling; Karla is operating exactly the way she did when Zemo was in charge, and getting a known maverick and wild card like Robbie Baldwin out of the way is his kind of tactic. Doing it nonlethally is also in keeping with his most recent "dark antihero" approach.


Norman's recent popularity is ultimately Peter Parker's fault: 50 percent. The whole world forgets they saw him as the Green Goblin on live TV just because of some good PR? Nah, not plausible. I don't think this is ultimately the plan of the current regime, but when everything goes down -- which I would expect to happen around the point of "ASM sales drop below 55,000" -- I'll bet my favorite Doctor Who shirt that Mephisto is involved in some way.


By the way:

Mary Jane totally knows everything: 100 percent. Now that we know for sure that she's not Jackpot, all the stuff she said in her May appearance doesn't work any other way. MJ didn't just cut a side deal with Mephisto; she pulled strings with someone ELSE. Who, or when it will be revealed, could be years from now, and probably not from the current Brain Trust.

God, it just kills me that there's still an awesome story to be told following up "One More Day", if only they were interested. "Hero beats the devil by getting his act together stories" always sucker me in, and so far Spidey has has his act completely NOT together and he's been completely snookered by the Devil.

[michaelpaciocco]

Dec 6, 2008 17:08:33 GMT -8 paulpogue said:

2009 will see Marvel heroes acting like heroes again: 90 percent. It looks like the whole point of this Dark Reign thing is to jumpstart the concept of "heroism" once more and have the Avengers acting like Earth's Mightiest Heroes and not a warring group of revolutionaries versus government-sponsored sociopaths. Depending on how Dark Reign is handled, it could actually be a hell of a good story.

Yeah, color me a cynic, but I don't trust the current cabal at Marvel to be that astute. I hope you're right, but I just don't trust a bunch of outright noir writers like Bendis and Brubaker to go against their genre leanings to write a good old fashioned hero saves the day story.

Dec 6, 2008 17:08:33 GMT -8 paulpogue said:

Moonstone gets punched through a cliff and crippled: 50 percent. Admit it, it would be cool, but there's a good chance she's a Dark Avenger.

Songbird-led Thunderbolts at the forefront of the anti-Norman revolution: 90 percent. Whether they'll have their own book is debateable, but that moment in the latest issue really nails it: when Songbird remembers how good it felt to be a real hero, even when they were faking it, that brief time when everyone loved them, the Avengers were gone and they were doing the Right Thing. It was all a scam, but let's face it, their current run of "heroism" is actually far darker than anything Zemo ever did. And this time ... this time they could get it right ....

I figure it's either going to be that or an outright "kill Songbird/Penance", because looking at the current cover for the T-bolts in the solits (and I have like, next to no clue who those guys are, other than a very few guesses and what the solits tell us. Marvel-fu experts appreciated) because that might be more in line with Diggle.

Dec 6, 2008 17:08:33 GMT -8 paulpogue said:

Norman Osborn dies at the end of all this: 50 percent. I find it rather likely, but I can also see them wanting to keep him around. But with all this buildup, and his high prominence as a Spider-villain, it really needs a hell of a payoff in the end.

Maybe, but I think too many writers at current Marvel enjoy "evil mass murdering Norman who can get away with ANYTHING" to get rid of him.