Elections'08 Thread

[K-Box]

McCain already winner of tonight's debate, McCain says!

No, really:



Even in a campaign that's been saturated with bald-faced lies, this one was such total bullshit that no less than the Washington Post took the time to report on it, at 10:40 a.m. Eastern time this morning, as follows:
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"McCain Wins Debate" - The Fix

Although the fate of tonight's presidential debate in Mississippi remains very much up in the air,* John McCain has apparently already won it -- if you believe an Internet ad an astute reader spotted next to this piece in the online edition of the Wall Street Journal this morning.

"McCain Wins Debate!" declares the ad which features a headshot of a smiling McCain with an American flag background. Another ad spotted by our eagle-eyed observer featured a quote from McCain campaign manager Rick Davis declaring: "McCain won the debate-- hands down."

Here's the screenshot.
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*Yes, that's right - the ad appeared online before McCain had even confirmed that he would appear at tonight's debate.

No wonder these people mock "the reality-based community."

[K-Box]

So ... how did they do?
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Early Poll Results Suggest More Uncommitted Voters Saw Obama As Debate Winner

CBS News and Knowledge Networks conducted a nationally representative poll of approximately 500 uncommitted voters reacting to the debate in the minutes after it happened.

These figures are still preliminary and could change as more respondents complete the survey. But here's what we have so far:

Forty percent of uncommitted voters who watched the debate tonight thought Barack Obama was the winner. Twenty-two percent thought John McCain won. Thirty-eight percent saw it as a draw.

Forty-six percent of uncommitted voters said their opinion of Obama got better tonight.

Sixty-eight percent of uncommitted voters think Obama would make the right decisions about the economy. Forty-one percent think McCain would.

Forty-nine percent of these voters think Obama would make the right decisions about Iraq. Fifty-five percent think McCain would.

We will have a full report on the poll later on. Uncommitted voters are those who don't yet know who they will vote for, or who have chosen a candidate but may still change their minds.
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More to come later on, no doubt ...

[K-Box]

So ... how did they do? Take two:

From TPM Election Central at Talking Points Memo:

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Initial Polls Show Obama Winning The Debate

By Greg Sargent and Eric Kleefeld - September 27, 2008, 12:21PM

Okay, we thought that McCain had a slight upper hand tonight (though we also said it wasn't a game changer, which is basically another way of saying that McCain didn't do what he had to). But the initial polls suggest that viewers give the nod to Obama in a big way.

Here's the CNN poll, conducted among debate-watchers:

Regardless of which candidate you happen to support, who do you think did the best job in the debate -- Barack Obama or John McCain?
Obama 51%
McCain 38%

Did _______ do a better or worse job than you expected?
Obama: Better 57%, Worse 20%, Same 23%
McCain: Better 60%, Worse 20%, Same 18%

Next, regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell me if you think Barack Obama or John McCain would better handle each of the following issues:

• The war in Iraq: Obama 52%, McCain 47%
  
  
• Terrorism: McCain 49%, Obama 45%
  
  
• The economy: Obama 58%, McCain 37%
  
  
• The current financial crisis: Obama 54%, McCain 36%

Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each one better described Barack Obama or John McCain during tonight's debate:

• Was more intelligent: Obama 55%, McCain 30%
  
  
• Expressed his views more clearly: Obama 53%, McCain 36%
  
  
• Spent more time attacking his opponent: McCain 60%, Obama 23%
  
  
• Was more sincere and authentic: Obama 46%, McCain 38%
  
  
• Seemed to be the stronger leader: Obama 49%, McCain 43%
  
  
• Was more likeable: Obama 61%, McCain 26%
  
  
• Was more in touch with the needs and problems of people like you: Obama 62%, McCain 32%

Based on what _______ said and did in tonight's debate, do you think he would be able to handle the job of president if he is elected?
Obama 69%-29%
McCain 68%-30%

And the numbers released so far from the CBS poll of undecided debate-watchers: 39% said Obama won, 25% said McCain won, and 36% said it was a draw. Forty-six percent said their opinions of Obama went up, compared to only 31% who said the same about McCain. On the economy, 66% said Obama would make the right decisions, compared to 44% who said the same for McCain.

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By any objective standard, this is a deeply ugly spread for McCain. Aside from "Terrorism," in which he now boasts ONLY a 4-point advantage, his ONLY "win" over Obama in this debate was in the category of "Spent more time attacking his opponent," which pretty much constitutes the definition of a Pyrrhic victory.

[K-Box]

How they did: Views from the other side of the aisle

Now, sure, a couple of preliminary polls have shown that majorities of those polled thus far thought that Obama beat McCain in their first debate, but let's not forget, I am a filthy liberal, who's inclined to seek out filthy liberal media that fits my confirmation bias, so let's refer instead to that vast bastion of "fair and balanced" reporting, FOX News, to see what their pool of undecided voters thought about the two candidates' respective debate performances, which would surely refute my own biased take on the same -



Oh. Well, damn. But, hey, those are just undecided voters! It's not like they matter, even though Republicans can't possibly win this year without winning over a majority of them! Surely, the conservative pundits who watched the debate have a much more favorable impression of McCain's performance! Why, let's ask American Spectator writer Quin Hillyer, who will no doubt tell us how badly Obama lost -

Wait, what's that?

... Oh, shit.

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Obama Won

Posted By: Quin Hillyer

Two caveats: First, because of some incredibly bad transportation luck, I missed the first 17 minutes of the debate, so if there were knock-out blows during those 17 minutes, I missed them. Second, I cheated: I watched very closely the CNN response dial. The dial clearly showed that Obama won. And the dial matched my impressions. Obama stood toe to toe with McCain on foreign policy -- McCain was right, and Obama was wrong, but I always put myself in the role of Rip Van Winkle who knows nothing of the past 20 years and thus is totally open to being convinced, and I thought Obama was at LEAST as convincing to the unknowledgeable -- and not only stood toe to toe, but seemed far more likeable, far more gracious, and far more forward-looking. McCain showed deep knowledge, but it was all backwards looking. Obama sounded almost as knowledgeable, and far more reasonable in outlook and temperament. McCain missed numerous chances to explain that IF he had been listened to in 2003, we would ALREADY have won in Iraq, and would be thus able to have moved on. Instead, he briefly mentioned that he was right in 2003, but then dropped it, and then kept repeating the same things again and again about the surge.

This last was important. Both men did well on the CNN viewer dials almost throughout. McCain consistently scored probably about a 5.8 or a 6 on a 10-point scale. Obama consistently scored about 6.5 or so (these precise numbers are my visual judgments from watching TV; obviously, they are falsely precise: I don't have the actual stats.). But toward the end, when McCain changed the subject to RETURN, unbidden, to Iraq and the surge, it was the only time all night where either candidate received EXTENDED response below the midline (5 out of 10). He sounded cranky, off topic, and so repetitive that it had become tiresome.

Obama actually won style points by repeatedly noting topics on which he agreed with McCain or credited him. This is a year when the public is absolutely sick of nastiness and wants evidence that somebody can lower the volume of discord. McCain might have the record of reaching across the aisle, but Obama has the style -- and got that point across tonight brilliantly, just by his attitude. Conversely, McCain did well once or twice to say that Obama "just doesn't understand." But when he did it a sixth or seventh time, it sounded mean and condescending.

Frankly, I was surprised. Just in the last 12 hours I had begun grudgingly crediting McCain because I thought that his gambit of sticking his nose into the bailout negotiations had actually turned out to be surprisingly helpful, in that it got the House conservatives a hearing at the table in a way they would not have had. I predicted at about 6:30 to a colleague that McCain would find a way to rattle Obama tonight; I had one of my "gut feelings," like the one I had before the Ryder Cup (correctly in the case of the Cup), that McCain would have a trap for Obama or would goad him into a sound-bite mistake. I was wrong. Overall, despite my criticisms, McCain did okay tonight; I think most Americans would be at least semi-comfortable with him as president. But McCain did NOT knock Obama off stride and Obama was more likeable and quite sufficiently competent-seeming. Obama started the night ahead in the polls, and I think he extended his advantage in the debate.

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Ladies and gentlemen: Welcome to Kennedy Versus Nixon, The 48-Years-Later Remake.

[jensaltmann]

Who lied more? Check out Factcheck.org's analysis.

www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/factchecking_debate_no_1.html

[paulpogue]

You know, I thought Obama did pretty well and McCain seemed tired and grumpy, but I'm a crazy left-winger who apparently doesn't understand the world. In the end I figured it was a close thing, so I'm very happily surprised at the way Obama seems to have completely pwned McCain in every poll that matters.

I think McCain is really, really, really fixated on earmarks and "meeting without preconditions," because he harped on those two things for fucking AGES. I think he seriously doesn't understand that most American people could barely tell you what an earmark is and almost certainly aren't letting that issue decide their vote. (And if you explained earmarks in terms that related directly to them -- "Remember that new senior center your senator was able to sponsor last year? Earmark" -- they'd want to hang the guy that was trying to shut them down.)

"Meeting without preconditions" has a little more weight, but I think the average American understands that in most cases, it is better to be talking than shooting, and reasonably well-informed Americans know just how well it turned out when we refused to talk to North Korea. I don't honestly understand McCain's repeated line, "You legitimize these people." Legitimize? They're THERE! They EXIST! Achmadenijad IS the president of Iran and he DOES control a very powerful force in this world; should we fucking IGNORE HIM?

McCain gave Obama a golden opportunity when he said, "What are you going to tell him when he says he wants to wipe Israel off the map -- Oh no you won't?" The proper response would have been, "When he says that, we tell him he's going to have to go through us first." Or something to that effect to drive home the point that meeting with foreign leaders does NOT mean wimping out on them.

Honestly, McCain made some MAJOR fucking gaffes last night that I'm amazed aren't making the rounds. Calling Pakistan -- a country whose current leader seized power in a MILITARY COUP -- a failed state is one of them. Another was the idea of the spending freeze, which I'm convinced he made up on the spot and had all his aides clutching their chests as soon as he said it. Yet a third was the fact that he committed to voting in favor of the $700 billion bailout -- the one he's been ambivalent about all week and tried to swoop in like Superman to draft a new one at the last minute -- but when Lehrer asked specifically about whether he supported the bailout plan on the table, McCain tossed off a "Yeah, sure" and then changed the subject at lightspeed, as if he realized what he'd done.

Nonetheless, Obama has seized on THE major point to run with, which is the fact that McCain never once uttered the words "middle class" the entire evening. McCain's body language -- cranky, condescending, and never once even LOOKING at Obama -- is becoming the second big story. It's as if he didn't know the camera would be trained on him even when he wasn't talking.

[K-Box]

Sept 27, 2008 6:29:20 GMT -8 jensaltmann said:

Who lied more? Check out Factcheck.org's analysis.

www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/factchecking_debate_no_1.html

Thank you for this. As biased as I am, it's good to have some balance.

[K-Box]

One day later: How did they do?

USA TODAY/Gallup Poll: Obama did better job in first debate

A new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll shows 46% of people who watched Friday night's presidential debate say Democrat Barack Obama did a better job than Republican John McCain; 34% said McCain did better.

Obama scored even better -- 52%-35% -- when debate-watchers were asked which candidate offered the best proposals for change to solve the country’s problems.

More than six in 10 people or 63% in the one-day poll, taken Saturday, said they watched the first faceoff in Oxford, Miss. For those 701 people, the margin of error was +/- 4 percentage points.

The poll suggested the debate was to some extent a wash for McCain: 21% of those who watched say it gave them a more favorable view of him, 21% say less favorable and 56% say it didn't change their opinion much.

Three in 10 said their opinion of Obama became more favorable after seeing the debate, compared to 14% who said less favorable and 54% who said it didn't make much difference.

More than one-third of viewers, or 37%, said they had less confidence in McCain to fix economic problems after seeing the debate; 23% said more. For Obama, the survey results were 34% more confidence, 26% less.

Neither candidate broke away on national security and foreign policy. About a third of viewers said they had more confidence in each man on that front after the debate, and slightly less in each case said they had less confidence.

Obama held a 5-percentage-point lead over McCain, 49%-45%, in the Gallup tracking poll taken Wednesday through Friday. Tomorrow's poll will be the first to include impact from the debate.*

*(Posted at 10:39 p.m. Eastern time, Sept. 27)

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As Excelscior1 posted on Daily Kos, "This means that every major poll and focus group has declared Obama the winner, and this is the first big name scientific poll performed the day after the debate. [...] This latest poll should calm those Obama supporters who listen more to what pundits say than what they see with their own eyes."

Which leads us into the next debate.

Take it away, Sarah Palin!

Tina Fey as Sarah Palin on Saturday Night Live. Again.

The really funny part?

Tina Fey is directly quoting Sarah Palin:

"But ultimately, what the bailout does is help those who are concerned about the health care reform that is needed to help shore up the economy — helping the — oh, it's got to be about job creation too. Shoring up our economy and putting it back on the right track. So health care reform and reducing taxes and reining in spending has got to accompany tax reductions and tax relief for Americans."

Sarah Palin's actual words, ladies and gentlemen.

Wall Of Facepalm? Your response?



Joe Biden? YOUR response?

[jensaltmann]

Sept 28, 2008 14:01:42 GMT -8 K-Box said:

Sept 27, 2008 6:29:20 GMT -8 jensaltmann said:

Who lied more? Check out Factcheck.org's analysis.

www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/factchecking_debate_no_1.html

Thank you for this. As biased as I am, it's good to have some balance.

Don't get me wrong: I think you guys are lucky this time, you have a candidate actually worth voting for.

But he's still a politician.

That said, I'd like to chime in on Jesse's paranoid conspiracy, in that I expect there will be a major terrorist attack against the US just before the election, which will claim the life of John McCan't, and will sweep Sarah Pallface into the Ovary Office.

[paulpogue]

Obama up by 8 in Gallup daily tracking, which is generally among the most reliable out there. And he's kept it for two days, with the majority of the inteviews coming AFTER the debate, which means he's on a smokin' hot streak.

This week's VPOTUS debate is going to be FAN-tastic. Normally I get very nervous about the expectations game, which states that when expectations are so low for Palin, all she has to do is not trip on the way to the podium and she'll be declared the winner. But she's been such a mess in the public so far that I have full confidence she'll meet all our expectactions >

Honestly, I think this whole strategy of hiding her from the press has been a massive catastrophe, because both of her very carefully vetted "safe" interviews have been a mess. If she'd been taking press questions for four weeks solid, not only would her gaffes have become commonplace, but she'd have the real-world experience in unscripted territory required to think on her feet on the national stage. Biden won't even NEED to rip her head off, because if she stumbles MERELY as badly as she did with Couric and Gibson, she's going to look like the bumblingest fool ever. Even Bush, who is not exactly one for the English langauge, is generally able to string together coherent sentences.

So now, by hiding her from the press, the McCain camp has:
-- pissed off the press, who used to be totally in the tank for them, INCLUDING Fox
-- failed to give Palin meaningful experience in a tough environment
-- made them look bad every time she does open her mouth
-- given the world a blank slate so that EVERYTHING people perceive about Palin will be determined Thursday night. That's the real kicker, which undermines the old expectations-game argument. People who are at least VAGUELY a known quantity have an advantage; if they screw up, they have a public record to fall back on. Palin? Nothing. She defines herself and the campaign, for better or worse, in 90 minutes Thursday night.

Incidentally, the McCain campaign's inability to look more than two moves ahead has probably bitten them in the ass once again. These guys are masters of the short-term gain for long-term loss; if they were running an auto race, they'd skip pit stops and laugh because they got a lap ahead, then wonder what the hell happened when they ran out of gas. Case in point: negotiating the VP debates. They wanted a controlled environment, so they asked for 18 questions in five-minute batches, with limited interaction, so that Biden couldn't tear her apart. What they didn't understand was that Biden was NEVER going to tear her apart -- the Obama camp knows how dangerous it would be for him to look like a bully.

But by doubling the number of questions, they're vastly expanding the field of knowledge Palin will have to have on hand, and doubling, if not exponentially increasing, the possibility for fuckups. Massive, campaign-ending fuckups.

[jensaltmann]

I might actually watch this, for the lulz.

[paulpogue]

Sept 29, 2008 9:44:17 GMT -8 jensaltmann said:

I might actually watch this, for the lulz.

This debate will be such epic lulz that it might come to REDEFINE the term, in much the same way "MILF" will never be the same now that Palin is involved.

[jbhelfrich]

Well, she'll probably be slightly better prepared for the debate, and she's apparently been called back for reprogramming intense pre-debate training to help her say thing in her own words instead of just mindlessly repeating (inappropriate) talking points.

Rumor today, though, is that CBS has a couple more stinkers from her, that were from a series of questions that were asked of both her and Biden. They are helpfully holding them until Friday at this point.

[jbhelfrich]

Sept 26, 2008 16:42:26 GMT -8 K-Box said:

McCain already winner of tonight's debate, McCain says!

Apparently he took credit for the "Rescue" bill passing this morning, about two hours before it went down in flames.

Going to be interesting when this hits the tracking polls.

[paulpogue]

Sept 29, 2008 14:56:31 GMT -8 jbhelfrich said:

Well, she'll probably be slightly better prepared for the debate, and she's apparently been called back for reprogramming intense pre-debate training to help her say thing in her own words instead of just mindlessly repeating (inappropriate) talking points.

Rumor today, though, is that CBS has a couple more stinkers from her, that were from a series of questions that were asked of both her and Biden. They are helpfully holding them until Friday at this point.

Word has it that one of those stinkers is that she was asked to name a Supreme Court decision besides Roe v. Wade -- AND COULDN'T.

BEST ELECTION EVER.