2009 Oddsmaking Thread!

[paulpogue]

Jul 29, 2009 20:15:11 GMT -8 michaelpaciocco said:

And Jesse's reputation as a Marvel Divining Rod remains remarkably high as it's confirmed that Diggle is assembling the original T-bolts as a resistance to Osborn.

Jesse was also absolutely dead certain three months ago that Songbird was consigned to limbo oblivion for years to come.

[jessebaker]

To be fair, IIRC I said we wouldn't see Songbird again until the original Thunderbolts come back. It's not my fault Marvel seemingly decided to kill Diggle's revamp within a matter of six months and bring back the old Thunderbolts.

[jensaltmann]

Jul 30, 2009 11:28:19 GMT -8 jessebaker said:

It's not my fault Marvel [...]

It is always your fault.

[paulpogue]

I've been holding a grudge against Jesse for 29 years over the Phoenix thing. Little known fact: When Jim Shooter made the call to Claremont to rewrite the ending, Jesse was there in the office. With a machete and the shriveled heart of Denny O'Neil.

[michaelpaciocco]

Jul 2, 2009 8:59:34 GMT -8 paulpogue said:

If Warlock isn't the Magus, he certainly has the Magus IN him; the most recent issue made that perfectly clear.

Given that the Magus is one of the few sons-of-bitches that scares the crap out of major cosmic powers even more than Thanos ever did, he's an excellent choice for the next major crossover.

I agree that Thanos is a solid lock for resurrection; he and the Magus were intentionally ideological opposites. Which, to me, was always one of Starlin's intriguing angles; on the alignment axis, he stripped away good and evil and, in their case, order and chaos, and left them as pure avatars of Life and Death. The Magus was evil to the core, but a being of "drive, ambition, purpose -- LIFE itself," as he once put it. Adam Warlock may have been Thanos' biggest foe,but he was also morose, prone to suicidal thoughts, and frequently fell to his knees crying in the middle of fight scenes. An avatar of life, he was not. The Magus was never hamstrung by "morality" or "doubt" .

Phyla-Vell as Oblivion avatar is a solid lock for a big villain, but I'm going to predict her as either chief henchperson (sort of the Phalanx to Magus' Ultron), or, more likely, enemy-of-my-enemy, since Oblivion is so detached from Magus. Hell, I can see a three-sided war between Magus and his church, the Guardians and company, and a Thanos/Phyla-Vell Death Force blazing across the cosmos. Which would be AWESOME.

Another interesting thought I just had regarding the Thanos/Warlock thing.

Thanos respected Warlock's power, but (from what I've seen in all the appearances I've seen, mostly Starlin-penned) he pitied Warlock for not seeing his obvious limitations and for not recognizing the Magus as the apex of Warlock's philosophy.

However, he was TERRIFIED of Mar-Vell because he had a foot in both realms (thanks to the cosmic awareness) and could see both points and could knock the damn thing over any which way he wanted (the traditional gift of the Starlin Hero, in my experience).

Warlock is Thanos' opposite number, but Mar-Vell was his ultimate enemy because he was the balance point and was fully aware of it.

Or am I totally off-base?

[jessebaker]

I think you are way off there, or at the very least basing that only off of the 70s Starlin stuff.

Warlock and Thanos, for lack of a better word, are kind of like the Master and Doctor Who. Both respect each other, both tend to banter like old college roommates, and with the later 90s-onward Starlin Warlock/Thanos stories, implied greatly that Warlock is the only person who truly believes in the notion that Thanos COULD be redeemed and that deep down, Thanos knows damn well that he's a pathetic figure who doesn't deserve Godhood and constantly sabatoges his schemes via leaving the means to defeat him out in the open for someone to see and stop him.

Unlike with Mar-Vell, Thanos has consistantly dropped his guard down towards Warlock and vice versa since their mutual resurrections. Also, Warlock's a cold-blooded SOB, especially after he purged himself of his good and evil aspects. Warlock, remember, was willing to sacrifice all of Earth's heroes during the Infinite Guantlet in order to buy Silver Surfer time to snatch the guantlet away from Thanos. Mar-Vell would never of done that.

If anything, Warlock is the one man Thanos both fears and respects. No one else knows Thanos intimately and can get him to drop his guard like Warlock does, let alone play the pity card on Thanos and live. And even if Thanos has the advantage of Warlock being in one of his suicidal moods, he's probably one of the few people who know that pissing off Warlock while he's in one of his moods is a good way to get your ass kicked.....

[michaelpaciocco]

Aug 19, 2009 21:31:20 GMT -8 jessebaker said:

I think you are way off there, or at the very least basing that only off of the 70s Starlin stuff.

Warlock and Thanos, for lack of a better word, are kind of like the Master and Doctor Who. Both respect each other, both tend to banter like old college roommates, and with the later 90s-onward Starlin Warlock/Thanos stories, implied greatly that Warlock is the only person who truly believes in the notion that Thanos COULD be redeemed and that deep down, Thanos knows damn well that he's a pathetic figure who doesn't deserve Godhood and constantly sabatoges his schemes via leaving the means to defeat him out in the open for someone to see and stop him.

Unlike with Mar-Vell, Thanos has consistantly dropped his guard down towards Warlock and vice versa since their mutual resurrections. Also, Warlock's a cold-blooded SOB, especially after he purged himself of his good and evil aspects. Warlock, remember, was willing to sacrifice all of Earth's heroes during the Infinite Guantlet in order to buy Silver Surfer time to snatch the guantlet away from Thanos. Mar-Vell would never of done that.

If anything, Warlock is the one man Thanos both fears and respects. No one else knows Thanos intimately and can get him to drop his guard like Warlock does, let alone play the pity card on Thanos and live. And even if Thanos has the advantage of Warlock being in one of his suicidal moods, he's probably one of the few people who know that pissing off Warlock while he's in one of his moods is a good way to get your ass kicked.....

I don't think there's much in the way of real respect - my interpretation is that they EACH pity the other for not seeing the obvious limitations of their respective endpoints - Warlock thinks Thanos is pathetic because of his self-sabotage of his own godhood, and Thanos smirks knowing that Warlock will never acknowledge that the Magus (and later the Goddess) are the natural endpoints of his own philosophy.

Also, any given Warlock/Thanos conflict has ended in stalemate unless an external force intervenes - Nebula, Mar-Vell, the Magus, the Goddess, etc. The fact that the 90s Starlin-penned Infinity series regularly had both Thanos and Warlock on the same side was an implicit statement that a balance was required between the two extremes. I'm just extending it further and suggesting that given Starlin's tendency to have a character fill the role of "balance" -the Silver Surfer is likely this point in the 90s, but it was Mar-Vell's role in the 70s.

[michaelpaciocco]

Jul 2, 2009 8:59:34 GMT -8 paulpogue said:

If Warlock isn't the Magus, he certainly has the Magus IN him; the most recent issue made that perfectly clear.

Given that the Magus is one of the few sons-of-bitches that scares the crap out of major cosmic powers even more than Thanos ever did, he's an excellent choice for the next major crossover.

I agree that Thanos is a solid lock for resurrection; he and the Magus were intentionally ideological opposites. Which, to me, was always one of Starlin's intriguing angles; on the alignment axis, he stripped away good and evil and, in their case, order and chaos, and left them as pure avatars of Life and Death. The Magus was evil to the core, but a being of "drive, ambition, purpose -- LIFE itself," as he once put it. Adam Warlock may have been Thanos' biggest foe,but he was also morose, prone to suicidal thoughts, and frequently fell to his knees crying in the middle of fight scenes. An avatar of life, he was not. The Magus was never hamstrung by "morality" or "doubt" .

Phyla-Vell as Oblivion avatar is a solid lock for a big villain, but I'm going to predict her as either chief henchperson (sort of the Phalanx to Magus' Ultron), or, more likely, enemy-of-my-enemy, since Oblivion is so detached from Magus. Hell, I can see a three-sided war between Magus and his church, the Guardians and company, and a Thanos/Phyla-Vell Death Force blazing across the cosmos. Which would be AWESOME.

And looking at the latest issue....


Well, hooray for us.

[paulpogue]

Wasn't that freaking AWESOME? It reminds me of 1970s storytelling where they would just pack one crazy thing on top of another. None of this Warren Ellis crap about spreading out "plot beats," aka "things actually happening" -- there was enough plot in this book to cover most four-issue arcs.

Plus: Maximus and GROOT!

[michaelpaciocco]

Aug 29, 2009 6:32:34 GMT -8 paulpogue said:

Wasn't that freaking AWESOME? It reminds me of 1970s storytelling where they would just pack one crazy thing on top of another. None of this Warren Ellis crap about spreading out "plot beats," aka "things actually happening" -- there was enough plot in this book to cover most four-issue arcs.

Plus: Maximus and GROOT!

To be honest, I've been expecting some kind of reveal re:Groot to be something of a "Zathras" derivative for sometime, but damn if it still wasn't good.

And yeah, a lot happened, much of which we predicted, so going back to the board.

The Coccoon:
"True" Adam Warlock -60%
"Her" - 20%
"The Goddess"-15%
Other - 4%
The Prodigy - 1%

Dead
Phylla-vell - 30% - she didn't just come back to buy it off so quickly, methinks.
Gammora - 50% - slightly more likely, as Magus would want to eliminate someone as deadly and as close to Warlock as her, but OTOH, healing factor.

Ressurection:
Quasar - 100% and holding - he's basically there, so I think it counts.
Genis-Vell - I'm going to have to bump off the odds to a solid 25%. My reasoning here is that the Fault, being a huge hole in reality, makes anything possible, including his return. GotG is already chalk full of characters, and why not bring in another? And it's really clear to me that the DnA team are consummate toybox players - they know that they can't really break them, so they are just having a lot of fun just playing with every damn one they can get their greedy hands on.

[michaelpaciocco]

Alright, haven't done one of these in a while, mostly due to lack of feedback plus like many people, haven't had much to care about.

However, just out of the sake of trying to maintain some interest

General stuff:

Bruce Wayne back by June 2010: 80%
"Blackest Night" ends with many miraclous ressurrections, in effect completely undoing everything from "Identity Crisis" and on - 75%
Hal Jordan as White Lantern - 99%
Sinestro as White Lantern - 65%
New Krypton destroyed by Dec 2010 - 95% - They can't get much more mileage out of this one, but on the other hand, it has been an interesting way to turn things on their head, and will (hopefully) lead to a stronger appreciation of Superman.
OMD/BND reversal by Dec 2010: 50% - Joey Q's Marvel will need its back broken for this to happen, but events are conspiring that might just do the trick, especially because Spidey sales are at the point where they have to pull a Jeph-Loeb style year long "Greatest Hits" ala "Hush" to keep things rolling

Corporate Stuff:
Disney completes the buyout of Marvel - 85%
Disney restructures the comics side of Marvel - 30% - only if they have a shitload of valid reasoning to.
DC restructuring leads to Wildstorm reverting back to an Image imprint after years of DC abuse - 20%. It could happen, but not too likely.
Diamond Distributing bites the dust in the next 18 months - 65%- with their minimum orders up, and corporate restructuring to take Corp super comics out of the comic medium, this will continue to be the biggest story of the decade - we haven't even begun to see the full ramifications.
Internet based comics develop a fully successful business model that sees them take off as a viable commercial enterprise. - 80%. It will happen sooner or later, and I'm betting on sooner.
Marvel and DC restructuring results in loss of no less than 20% of their current output - 95% - particularly any extraneous "Avenger", "X-Men", "Batman", or "Justice League" titles (Say good-bye to the Initiative now).
Prediction for 2010: No less than 5 marquee corporate comic 'creators' leave the comic medium altogether to focus on film/TV projects - 90% - and I'm going to call them all - Mark Millar, Greg Rucka, Ed Brubaker, Brian K. Vaughn, and Warren Ellis.

OK, moving into specific pools over a few Marvel "events"

Given that "The Siege" is happening, we are going to find out Norman's "Secret weapon". It will be:
The Sentry/Void - 50% - because Bendis is nothing if not predictable.
Wanda Maximoff/Scarlet Witch - 15% - plausible
Marvelman/Miracleman - 10% - Never discount the Corporate comics' giants ability to piss on creators.
Surtur - 10%. Remember how JMS left Thor because he said he didn't want to have Thor at the center of the next big Marvel Event? Surtur would also be one of the few threats that might give Doom pause, and that goes double for Loki.
A captured Odin - 5%. See Surtur
(note: I'd include the Destroyer here, but I seem to recall it was used already in JMS's Thor run - uh, correct me? Confirm?)
Other - 10%. Ultron? The Blue Marvel? A herald of Galactus? Forbush man? Pick your own.

Now, onto currently one of the few Marvel Series I can be bothered to care about - Guardians of The Galaxy




OK, it is now painfully obvious from the most recent issue (due to the appearance of a certain sword-weilder) that not only have DnA read the original Valentino run, they actually read his online forum discussion for the stuff he abandoned when he left for Image. That's a bit of a game changer in that it means nothing can be taken precisely for granted anymore.

And fuck, that's the chosen one? yeah, I see a big punchline/twist coming there, but I'll save that for if I hear some feedback.

In the meantime, we've got the fault and access to a parrallel reality (judging by the new doppel-avengers on the cover of "Realm of the Kings"), so we now have to expand our pools

Deaths:
Phylla-Vell - 40%. Slightly more sticking power, as there's now a whole reality and the possiblity of parallel replacement.
Gammora - 75% - her odds go up a little more drastically here, as a parallel replacement would create more drama.
Moondragon - 10%
Rocket Raccoon - 1%
Drax the Destroyer - 1% - he still has a storyline, so don't bet on it.
Groot - 5%. Might get a body smashed, but he has buds to grow back from.
Vance Astro - 30%. Again, I have a theory here....
Cosmo - 1%
Mantis - 20%. Because Precogs are dangerous.
Starlord - 50%. His current predicament is rough, plus he has understudies, but hey, that's the stuff heroes are made of. But is Peter Quill a hero? That's the big question.
Bug - 80%. Because there's already plenty of comic relief.
Jack Flag - 5%. His current predicament is also interesting...

Ressurrections/Parallel replacements:
Thanos - 100% - with a 50/50 split between "resurrection" or "replacement from the alternate timeline"
Mar-Vell - 20% - only chance is via replacement
Adam Warlock - 30% - replacement
Genis-Vell - 25% - OK, I only put this here for me, because I liked the character, ok? Yeesh.

Go

[jessebaker]

The way that Black Lantern Sue and Ralph were haphazardly killed off makes me think more and more that there is NO fucking way that Blackest Night is going to end with mass resurrection. If anything we'll be getting DiDio trying to permanently DESTROY any chances of any future writers bringing back the dead via the notion of destroying the bodies of all Black Lanterns, with only Hawkman/Hawkgirl surviving either via the resurrection curse and an aging spell on the Baby Hawks or the two being out and out replaced with all-new, all-different alien Hawkman/Hawkgirls.

As for white lantern, given the sledgehammer in the "book of death" about Phantom Stranger's role in Blackest Night, I think he'll be the White Lantern.

As for Wildstorm, if it goes back to Image, it will go back with NONE of the properties everyone knows. Essentially Jim Lee will be lucky to get the Wildstorm name back if he quits DC to go back to Image.

As for Osborn's "secret weapon"? If it's Scarlet Witch, the only way that would work is if it ties into my notion of "Loki kidnapped Wanda and has been impersonating her ever since the Austen Avengers run" that Marvel seems to be building up in Mighty Avengers. Wanda being kidnapped, no one giving a damn to realize that Loki impersonated her to kill her best friends/framed her for wiping out 90% of all mutant-kind, PLUS the shit Tony Stark did as part of Civil War, would be the sort of thing that might make Wanda side with Norman Osborn.

That said, I'm guessing it will be Kid Miracle/Marvelman, since no one else could explain WHY Doom and Loki would submit to Norman "leading" the Cabal he made them join. Plus it would give a reason for Miracleman showing up, if only to stop his protege.

[michaelpaciocco]

I dunno Jesse - "White Light of Creation" can mean a lot of things. Then again, I'm completely unaware of what you're talking about re: Phantom Stranger.

As it stands, Neglect is killing Wildstorm - I'm frankly surprised they even made it through 2009. Without Scott Duniber, the line is brain-dead and on life support. They need something and they just aren't getting it.

[jensaltmann]

I can see Jim Lee leaving DC when his contract is up, and not getting Wildstorm back. In which case I can see him relaunch the entire thing under a new name.

[michaelpaciocco]

Maybe - depends on what the terms of the buyout were at the time. Wildstorm is currently collapsing as is.